Description: Charts created for the paper:
Rodrigues, R., Pietzcker, R., Sitarz, J., Merfort, A., Hasse, R.,
Hoppe, J., Pehl, M., Ershad, A. M., Baumstark, L., Luderer, G. 2040
greenhouse gas reduction targets and energy transitions in line with the
EU Green Deal. under revision (2023).
Data
Reference emissions
|
target
|
region
|
period
|
tgt55
|
tgt57
|
tgt59
|
tgt61
|
tgt63
|
tgt65
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation
|
EU-27
|
2030
|
2117
|
2023
|
1929
|
1835
|
1741
|
1647
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and without international transport
|
Germany
|
2030
|
|
|
|
|
|
449
|
Efficiency targets
|
target
|
Final_Energy_Mtoe
|
Final_Energy_Twa
|
reduction_from_2020_Reference_Scenario
|
|
reference
|
846
|
1.1235
|
0.02
|
|
FitFor55 eff
|
787
|
1.0452
|
0.09
|
|
RePowerEU eff
|
750
|
0.9960
|
0.13
|
2040 Emission Reductions
|
variable
|
mainScenario
|
minTarget
|
maxTarget
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with intra-EU aviation
|
86%
|
81%
|
92%
|
|
Emissions with LULUCF and with international transport
|
84%
|
80%
|
91%
|
Results
|
direct_electrification
|
reference_value_EJ
|
min_EJ
|
max_EJ
|
reference_value_Mtoe
|
min_Mtoe
|
max_Mtoe
|
|
total
|
13.9
|
12.0
|
14.5
|
332.0
|
286.6
|
346.3
|
|
buildings
|
6.4
|
5.5
|
6.7
|
152.9
|
131.4
|
160.0
|
|
transport
|
3.0
|
2.7
|
3.0
|
71.7
|
64.5
|
71.7
|
|
industry
|
4.5
|
3.9
|
4.8
|
107.5
|
93.1
|
114.6
|
|
indirect_electrification
|
reference_value_EJ
|
min_EJ
|
max_EJ
|
reference_value_Mtoe
|
min_Mtoe
|
max_Mtoe
|
|
total
|
1.3
|
0.9
|
1.4
|
31.0
|
21.5
|
33.4
|
|
buildings
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
transport
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
4.8
|
|
industry
|
1.1
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
26.3
|
19.1
|
28.7
|
|
indirect_electrification_detail
|
reference_value_EJ
|
min_EJ
|
max_EJ
|
reference_value_Mtoe
|
min_Mtoe
|
max_Mtoe
|
|
total_H2
|
1.2
|
0.9
|
1.3
|
28.7
|
21.5
|
31.0
|
|
total_efuels
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
2.4
|
0.0
|
2.4
|
|
buildings_H2
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
buildings_efuels
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
|
transport_H2
|
0.2
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
4.8
|
2.4
|
4.8
|
|
transport_efuels
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.4
|
|
industry_H2
|
1.0
|
0.8
|
1.2
|
23.9
|
19.1
|
28.7
|
|
industry_efuels
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
0.1
|
0.0
|
0.0
|
2.4
|
|
electricity_demand_upscale
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
127
|
118
|
128
|
|
2040
|
154
|
134
|
161
|
|
electricity_share_in_FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
31
|
31
|
33
|
|
2040
|
49
|
45
|
58
|
|
wind_and_Solar_gen_upscale
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
3.8
|
2.9
|
4.0
|
|
2040
|
6.9
|
4.6
|
7.8
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Wind_and_Solar_participation_2040_%
|
79
|
65
|
82
|
|
Electricity_Generation
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
coal_in_generation_(%)
|
0.00
|
0.00
|
0.73
|
|
gas_in_generation_(%)
|
2.72
|
0.68
|
10.97
|
|
nuclear_in_generation_(%)
|
6.21
|
5.70
|
7.55
|
|
wind_and_Solar_gen_(%)
|
78.66
|
64.82
|
81.65
|
|
wind_and_Solar_cap_(TW)
|
2.42
|
1.63
|
2.74
|
|
FE
|
reference_value_2020
|
reference_value_2040
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_fossil_without_CCS_in_electricity_(%)
|
40
|
3
|
1
|
12
|
|
Primary_Energy
|
relative_to_2020
|
min
|
max
|
|
Biomass
|
100.2
|
69.5
|
126.2
|
|
Coal
|
3.0
|
2.6
|
32.8
|
|
Gas
|
38.8
|
16.4
|
88.9
|
|
Oil
|
39.1
|
25.9
|
74.3
|
|
Primary_Energy_Imports
|
relative_to_2020
|
|
Biomass
|
218.3
|
|
Coal
|
7.2
|
|
Gas
|
39.2
|
|
Oil
|
39.5
|
|
FE
|
relative_to_2020
|
|
Gas_and_hydrogen_(%)
|
65.6
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
fe_electricity_relative_to_2020_(%)
|
154.3
|
133.7
|
161.2
|
|
fe_electricity_2040(Mtoe)
|
332.0
|
287.0
|
346.0
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
transport_electricity_(%)
|
234.6
|
216.6
|
243.6
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_aviation_(%)
|
21.4
|
18.1
|
36.2
|
|
share_of_sustainable_fuel_in_shipping_(%)
|
14.9
|
12.0
|
30.2
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_electric_and_district_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%)
|
66
|
60
|
83
|
|
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_(%)
|
29
|
12
|
36
|
|
share_of_solids_buildings_heating_useful energy_(%)
|
5
|
4
|
5
|
|
share_of_liquids_and_gases_buildings_heating_useful_energy_2020_(%)
|
49
|
49
|
49
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_build_FE_in_relation_to_2020_(%)
|
33
|
26
|
55
|
|
FE
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
share_of_EVs_in_LDVs_(%)
|
100
|
100
|
100
|
|
FE_chemicals
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2020 (%)
|
4
|
4
|
4
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2030 (%)
|
9
|
8
|
12
|
|
biomass_hydrogen_efuels_2040 (%)
|
20
|
18
|
33
|
|
FE_other_industry
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
hydrocarbons_2020 (%)
|
46
|
46
|
46
|
|
hydrocarbons_2030 (%)
|
36
|
31
|
38
|
|
hydrocarbons_2040 (%)
|
26
|
17
|
28
|
Carbon Management Results
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
CCS_deployment_in_2030_MtCO2
|
18
|
8
|
19
|
|
CCS_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2
|
188
|
56
|
258
|
|
CCS_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_%
|
26
|
16
|
30
|
|
novel_CDR_upscaling_rates_2030_2040_%
|
26
|
21
|
36
|
|
novel_CDR_deployment_in_2040_MtCO2
|
132
|
43
|
192
|
Milestones upscaling rates
|
share_of_electricity_in_final_energy
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
2030
|
31.4
|
30.5
|
33.3
|
|
2040
|
49.5
|
45.2
|
58.4
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
FE_Transport_change_%
|
-46
|
-56
|
-45
|
|
FE_Buildings_change_%
|
-22
|
-44
|
-16
|
|
FE_Industry_change_%
|
-21
|
-43
|
-14
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
4.5
|
4.2
|
5.0
|
|
Renewables_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
5.3
|
4.6
|
6.7
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
-15.8
|
-16.1
|
-15.3
|
|
Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
4.6
|
4.0
|
5.8
|
|
Transport_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
15.1
|
14.4
|
16.0
|
|
Buildings_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
2.7
|
1.8
|
4.3
|
|
Industry_Electricity_Share_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
2.1
|
1.5
|
3.4
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
19.1
|
14.1
|
20.7
|
|
Hydrogen_upscaling_rates_2040_to_2050_%
|
5.8
|
2.3
|
6.9
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
Electricity_Demand_increase_2020_to_2040_(%)
|
56.2
|
35.3
|
63.2
|
|
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2022_to_2030_(Twh)
|
87.0
|
59.0
|
91.0
|
|
Electricity_Demand_yearly_install_2030_to_2040_(Twh)
|
69.0
|
39.0
|
88.0
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
3.1
|
2.2
|
3.3
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2020_to_2030_%
|
2.4
|
1.6
|
2.5
|
|
Electricity_Demand_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
2.0
|
1.2
|
2.5
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
SolarPV_2022_vs_2040_X
|
8.3
|
5.9
|
9.3
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
6.9
|
5.9
|
8.0
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_%
|
12.5
|
10.4
|
13.2
|
|
SolarPV_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
19.8
|
15.7
|
20.3
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
wind_2022_vs_2040_X
|
2.7
|
1.5
|
3.2
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2030_to_2040_%
|
6.4
|
3.3
|
7.2
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2040_%
|
5.7
|
2.2
|
6.6
|
|
Wind_upscaling_rates_2022_to_2030_%
|
4.7
|
0.8
|
5.9
|
|
result
|
reference_value
|
min
|
max
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2030
|
1970
|
1782
|
2033
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2040
|
928
|
563
|
1064
|
|
residual_fossil_MtCO2_2050
|
369
|
124
|
474
|